Germany · Independent probability study
Bundesliga predictions and probabilities
In our simulation of 10,000 seasons, FC Bayern München is the most likely Bundesliga champion (88%), with 79 expected final points. Below is every upcoming match with our win probabilities; the team with the higher chance is always on the left.
Upcoming Bundesliga matches
Friday 20 November
FC Bayern München ⌂90%3%1. FC KölnSaturday 21 November
Bayer 04 Leverkusen ⌂61%18%SC Paderborn 07RB Leipzig56%21%1. FC Union Berlin ⌂SV 07 Elversberg ⌂43%32%SC FreiburgBorussia Dortmund56%21%Borussia Mönchengladbach ⌂Eintracht Frankfurt ⌂47%31%TSG 1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart41%33%FC Schalke 04 ⌂Sunday 22 November
FC Augsburg ⌂52%27%1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder Bremen ⌂57%20%Hamburger SVHow the Bundesliga will end
| # | Team | Pts | Final pts | Champion | Top places | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 21 | 79 | 88% | 100% | — |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 21 | 69 | 9% | 95% | — |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 18 | 64 | 2% | 83% | — |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 19 | 57 | — | 45% | — |
| 5 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 16 | 56 | — | 35% | — |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 12 | 55 | — | 29% | — |
| 7 | SV 07 Elversberg | 13 | 48 | — | 5% | 1% |
| 8 | SV Werder Bremen | 15 | 47 | — | 3% | 2% |
| 9 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 12 | 46 | — | 2% | 3% |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 43 | — | 1% | 7% |
| 11 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 10 | 42 | — | 1% | 9% |
| 12 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 42 | — | 1% | 9% |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 10 | 41 | — | — | 13% |
| 14 | Hamburger SV | 12 | 38 | — | — | 26% |
| 15 | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 36 | — | — | 32% |
| 16 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 33 | — | — | 55% |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7 | 31 | — | — | 68% |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 30 | — | — | 75% |
Latest Bundesliga results
- 8 NovTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 – 1 FC Schalke 04
- 8 NovSC Freiburg 2 – 0 1. FC Union Berlin
- 8 Nov1. FC Köln 1 – 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 7 NovVfB Stuttgart 1 – 0 SV Werder Bremen
- 7 NovRB Leipzig 5 – 2 FC Augsburg
- 7 NovBorussia Dortmund 2 – 1 SV 07 Elversberg
- 7 Nov1. FSV Mainz 05 1 – 2 FC Bayern München
- 7 NovSC Paderborn 07 2 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
- 6 NovHamburger SV 3 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 NovEintracht Frankfurt 3 – 1 Hamburger SV
- 1 Nov1. FC Union Berlin 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
- 31 OctFC Bayern München 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Our engine's accuracy in the Bundesliga: 53% correct in 262 matches evaluated before kick-off.