England · Independent probability study
Premier League predictions and probabilities
In our simulation of 10,000 seasons, Arsenal FC is the most likely Premier League champion (69%), with 82 expected final points. Below is every upcoming match with our win probabilities; the team with the higher chance is always on the left.
Upcoming Premier League matches
Saturday 21 November
Chelsea FC ⌂43%29%Leeds United FCManchester City FC ⌂65%13%Fulham FCAston Villa FC ⌂55%20%Sunderland AFCLiverpool FC ⌂53%23%Manchester United FCBrighton & Hove Albion FC44%27%Hull City AFC ⌂AFC Bournemouth ⌂51%22%Nottingham Forest FCIpswich Town FC41%31%Tottenham Hotspur FC ⌂Brentford FC ⌂48%24%Everton FCCoventry City FC ⌂67%13%Crystal Palace FCArsenal FC54%19%Newcastle United FC ⌂How the Premier League will end
| # | Team | Pts | Final pts | Champion | Top places | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal FC | 27 | 82 | 69% | 100% | — |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 22 | 75 | 21% | 97% | — |
| 3 | Manchester City FC | 21 | 71 | 9% | 89% | — |
| 4 | Liverpool FC | 18 | 61 | 1% | 44% | — |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 15 | 58 | — | 25% | — |
| 6 | Brentford FC | 14 | 54 | — | 9% | 2% |
| 7 | Chelsea FC | 16 | 53 | — | 8% | 2% |
| 8 | Ipswich Town FC | 11 | 52 | — | 6% | 3% |
| 9 | Everton FC | 16 | 52 | — | 5% | 3% |
| 10 | Leeds United FC | 14 | 52 | — | 5% | 3% |
| 11 | Aston Villa FC | 13 | 51 | — | 4% | 4% |
| 12 | Hull City AFC | 11 | 49 | — | 2% | 7% |
| 13 | Coventry City FC | 9 | 48 | — | 2% | 10% |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest FC | 9 | 47 | — | 1% | 12% |
| 15 | Manchester United FC | 8 | 46 | — | 1% | 14% |
| 16 | Newcastle United FC | 12 | 44 | — | — | 25% |
| 17 | Fulham FC | 10 | 42 | — | — | 34% |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 12 | 41 | — | — | 37% |
| 19 | Sunderland AFC | 8 | 39 | — | — | 52% |
| 20 | Crystal Palace FC | 7 | 30 | — | — | 93% |
Latest Premier League results
- 7 NovArsenal FC 1 – 0 Hull City AFC
- 7 NovNottingham Forest FC 3 – 1 Manchester City FC
- 7 NovLeeds United FC 1 – 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC
- 7 NovFulham FC 1 – 1 Newcastle United FC
- 7 NovEverton FC 3 – 1 Coventry City FC
- 7 NovCrystal Palace FC 1 – 3 Liverpool FC
- 7 NovSunderland AFC 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
- 7 NovIpswich Town FC 1 – 2 AFC Bournemouth
- 7 NovBrighton & Hove Albion FC 2 – 0 Brentford FC
- 7 NovManchester United FC 4 – 4 Aston Villa FC
- 2 NovNewcastle United FC 0 – 1 Everton FC
- 1 NovLiverpool FC 0 – 1 Arsenal FC
Our engine's accuracy in the Premier League: 44% correct in 350 matches evaluated before kick-off.