Brazil · Independent probability study

Brasileirão predictions and probabilities

In our simulation of 10,000 seasons, CR Flamengo is the most likely Brasileirão champion (73%), with 80 expected final points. Below is every upcoming match with our win probabilities; the team with the higher chance is always on the left.

Upcoming Brasileirão matches

Wednesday 18 November

—:—SC Corinthians Paulista ⌂46%27%Botafogo FR —:—Santos FC38%38%Coritiba FBC ⌂—:—SE Palmeiras41%30%Cruzeiro EC ⌂—:—CR Flamengo ⌂65%14%CA Paranaense —:—EC Bahia39%33%Grêmio FBPA ⌂—:—Mirassol FC ⌂37%34%CA Mineiro —:—Clube do Remo ⌂55%21%Chapecoense AF —:—Fluminense FC39%32%São Paulo FC ⌂—:—CR Vasco da Gama ⌂48%24%SC Internacional —:—EC Vitória ⌂36%33%RB Bragantino

Saturday 21 November

—:—CA Paranaense ⌂67%13%Clube do Remo —:—CA Mineiro ⌂54%19%SC Corinthians Paulista —:—EC Bahia ⌂61%18%Coritiba FBC —:—Botafogo FR ⌂46%27%São Paulo FC —:—RB Bragantino ⌂52%22%CR Vasco da Gama —:—Cruzeiro EC52%24%Chapecoense AF ⌂—:—Fluminense FC ⌂63%15%Mirassol FC —:—SC Internacional ⌂46%24%EC Vitória —:—SE Palmeiras ⌂44%27%CR Flamengo —:—Santos FC ⌂62%16%Grêmio FBPA

How the Brasileirão will end

#	Team	Pts	Final pts	Champion	Top places	Relegation
1	CR Flamengo	60	80	73%	100%	—
2	SE Palmeiras	57	77	27%	100%	—
3	CA Paranaense	49	66	—	75%	—
4	Fluminense FC	48	66	—	73%	—
5	Cruzeiro EC	45	61	—	25%	—
6	EC Bahia	46	60	—	19%	—
7	CA Mineiro	40	56	—	6%	—
8	Santos FC	38	53	—	1%	—
9	RB Bragantino	36	52	—	—	1%
10	São Paulo FC	36	51	—	—	1%
11	Coritiba FBC	38	49	—	—	2%
12	Botafogo FR	35	49	—	—	2%
13	SC Corinthians Paulista	32	45	—	—	15%
14	EC Vitória	33	45	—	—	20%
15	Mirassol FC	32	45	—	—	19%
16	CR Vasco da Gama	31	43	—	—	27%
17	SC Internacional	28	40	—	—	55%
18	Grêmio FBPA	29	40	—	—	63%
19	Clube do Remo	23	34	—	—	95%
20	Chapecoense AF	18	26	—	—	100%

Our engine's accuracy in the Brasileirão: 51% correct in 311 matches evaluated before kick-off.